October Research, LLC will host the Q1 Economic Outlook webinar on Jan. 15 at 2 p.m. (ET) featuring Jeff Lanier, head of finance and senior vice president of strategic accounts at Stewart. Lanier answered a few of our questions to give the audience a taste of what he’ll be discussing on the webinar.
Q In what direction do you see home price forecasts moving towards?
Lanier: As always, real estate is local, so you’ll see prices move differently in different markets. That said, at a national level, despite hopes for a correction, I do not see prices moving down in any meaningful way in 2026. There are many factors that impact housing prices which I’ll break down on the webinar.
Q What will shifts in economic trends mean generally for mortgages, home prices and business strategies moving forward?
Lanier: Economic trends affect mortgage rates through two levers: the 10-year Treasury and the mortgage spread. And right now, both are moving in ways that keep the market guessing. Even if the economy cools, mortgage rates may not drop as far as people hope. The question we’ll try to address on the webinar is if the industry needs to reset interest rate expectations and planning for 2026.
Q How will Fed policy, inflation and unemployment affect the housing market?
Lanier: Fed policy, inflation, and unemployment all matter for housing in a normal market, but we are not in a typical environment. While the Fed will tackle inflation and employment and which they tackle first will have implications to the housing market, the biggest drivers of housing dynamics may now be structural affordability challenges and persistent supply shortages. We’ll discuss those forces and if they could outweigh Fed policy.
Q Should title agencies expect more sales or refis as we start 2026?
Lanier: Mortgage rates will still be higher than many would like, but they’ll be meaningfully lower than the 2023 peak — and buyers increasingly understand we’re not heading back to 3 percent mortgages. That shift alone changes both purchase and refinance behavior. We’ll dig deeper into what title agencies should realistically expect — and plan for — during the webinar.
Click here to register for this webinar.